The poultry market saw a short-lived price increase during February, supported by the return to schools and school meal programs, as well as the arrival of monthly salaries boosting consumption. However, this recovery has not changed the broader outlook: European poultry markets remain on a downward trend.

Brazil: oversupply weighs on slaughtered chicken prices

Brazilian chicken prices declined across key cuts in the period to February 19. The price for chicken deadweight frozen (distributor) fell 0.7% to €1,051/mt EXW, while frozen chicken breast (large volumes) declined 0.9% to €1,430/mt EXW, and frozen chicken wings fell 0.3% to €1,668/mt EXW.

A clear oversupply in slaughtered chicken is driving successive price declines. However, the drop in prices during the month triggered increased buying from slaughterhouses through to end customers toward the end of February. The return to schools, salary arrivals, and Carnival-period demand, particularly for wing cuts, provided some short-term support.

Live chicken prices in Brazil remain weak, with low traded volumes despite broadly stable prices.

Slaughter data underlines the supply picture: preliminary figures for February show 181.8 million heads slaughtered, compared with 489.6 million in January and 453.6 million in February 2025. The sharp month-on-month decline reflects both the seasonal Carnival period effect, with some slaughterhouses adjusting or pausing operations, and the broader market dynamics.

The recovery in slaughtered meat prices is expected to continue, but is likely to be mild, as the second half of the month typically brings a cooling in consumption.

Thailand: prices moving up on seasonal factors

In contrast to Brazil, Thailand is seeing upward price momentum. Live weight chicken prices increased 1.8% to €1,098/mt EXW in the period to February 19, while skinless chicken breast rose 4.1% to €1,831/mt EXW. Prices are expected to continue rising in the coming months, supported by Chinese New Year demand and a peak in tourism during February and March.

Feed costs in Thailand rose during January and are expected to increase further in February following new regulations on corn imports.

Freight rates from the Far East to North Europe are also increasing, with a general rate increase applicable from March 1: $1,900 per 20-foot reefer and $3,100 per 40-foot reefer.

Europe: HPAI outbreaks worsen in Poland, chick shortages add pressure

European poultry markets are characterized by low local availability, low demand, and higher imported volumes, a combination that has been contributing to price declines.

Polish chicken carcass prices fell 3.0% to €2,331/mt EXW in the period to February 2, while frozen chicken breast declined 2.0% to €4,246/mt EXW. Spanish broiler deadweight prices also edged down 0.5% to €2,218/mt EXW.

HPAI outbreaks in Poland have worsened, with 32 new outbreaks recorded in week 8, up from 22 in week 6, and a total of 3.5 million domestic birds killed and disposed of. Outbreaks in France have remained limited. While Poland’s total poultry flock is around 240 million birds, meaning the direct production impact is relatively small, HPAI outbreaks are noted as having ripple effects on export demand.

In Belgium and the Netherlands, live chicken volumes going to slaughterhouses are low. A shortage of chicks is contributing to lower slaughter volumes in the Netherlands, where broiler prices have remained flat. Belgium has seen a small price increase for broilers. Spain is in a supply deficit, though broiler prices have continued to trend downward.

Turkey’s trade ministry halted chicken exports from February 9 following pre-Ramadan price increases.

If the chick shortage persists and slaughter volumes remain low, broiler prices in Europe are likely to move higher.

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