European cheese prices have continued to increase into early March 2026, with Gouda, Mozzarella, and Cheddar all moving higher despite milk supply running around 5% above year-ago levels. The disconnect between milk availability and cheese supply reflects a market where production capacity is fully utilised, stocks are low, and buyers who waited for cheaper prices are increasingly being forced to pay up.
The shift in buyer behaviour
Throughout February, buyers who delayed purchasing in anticipation of cheaper spot prices found themselves in a difficult position. Producers and traders largely declined to lower prices to meet them. That experience appears to be changing procurement behaviour: Q2 coverage is increasingly being locked in, and some buyers are already looking at Q3. The analysis notes that a group of buyers still expects lower spot prices during the milk flush period, though the degree to which that materialises remains an open question.
Gouda: stocks low, production at full capacity
Gouda prices have moved up meaningfully since the start of February, with the Vesper Price Index reaching €3,510/mt EXW as of 4 March. Product has become difficult to find, while buyers are described as short-covered. Production is running well, but stocks remain relatively low due to a combination of domestic consumption and export demand at current price levels.
All available cheese production capacity appears fully utilised. The cheese currently being traded is predominantly fresh-made product, with little aged inventory available. Despite many buyers staying deliberately short-covered in expectation of a supply-led price decline, that has not materialised so far.
Mozzarella: sharp price increase as short buyers are squeezed
European Mozzarella prices have risen sharply since early February, with the Vesper Price Index at €3,480/mt EXW. Buyers who stayed short on the expectation of cheaper product ahead have found little success, with those needing nearby delivery having to accept notably higher prices. The most recent GDT auction reflected the tighter tone, with prices rising 4–5% across April and May contracts over the last two events.
US Mozzarella production continues to expand, with new capacity keeping American prices competitive and acting as a ceiling on how far European export prices can move. The stronger euro has further reduced European Mozzarella’s competitiveness on export markets since mid-January.
Cheddar: firming, but US production adds some pressure
The Vesper Price Index for European Cheddar rose to €3,480/mt EXW, with the trading range now sitting between €3,300 and €3,750/mt. The Irish and UK production season is picking up, adding volumes while current stocks remain relatively low. The premium for Cheddar compared with Gouda and Mozzarella has almost vanished, as those varieties are considerably less available.
In the US, cheese prices pulled back modestly as good Cheddar production weighed on sentiment. US cheese stocks remain low despite higher production, primarily due to strong exports at these price levels.
Emmental: a relative underperformer
Emmental has not kept pace with the broader cheese rally, with prices broadly flat. French production has been running at elevated levels following the premium seen in Q4 2025, resulting in more volumes available. The spread between Emmental and other cheese varieties has narrowed to below €200/mt. The Vesper Price Index for Emmental stands at €3,550/mt EXW.
Outlook
The analysis notes that the supply side of the dairy market is nearing maximum production capacity in many parts of the world, with limited ability to expand rapidly. Milk is plentiful, whey is at record highs, and cheese prices are only just below the 10-year average, conditions that point to strong cheese production going forward. Whether the anticipated milk flush in Q2 translates into meaningful price pressure will depend on whether new volumes are sufficient to rebuild stocks that remain notably lean.
Access the dairy market analysis here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2772
