Spot rates across major container shipping lanes declined significantly in late January as pre-Chinese New Year demand failed to materialize, with double-digit decreases reported on both Asia-Europe and Asia-America routes.
The World Container Index from Shanghai showed rates falling as the early January demand surge ended quickly. The pre-Chinese New Year season took an unexpected turn, with rates declining much faster than anticipated as available capacity outpaced demand.
Belgian rail strikes starting January 25 and running through January 31 disrupted European supply chains, forcing cargo to shift from rail to road transport. Ports including Antwerp and Rotterdam already faced high yard utilization and congestion before the strikes, with the added road volume creating tighter trucking capacity and potential cross-border delays.
Severe weather in the Bay of Biscay forced vessels to interrupt voyages and seek shelter off the coasts of the UK and France, resulting in arrival delays expected at all major North European ports.
Blank sailings reached a 16% cancellation rate for the period from January 26 to March 1, with carriers withdrawing 109 of 703 scheduled sailings. This figure marks a significant increase from previous periods, with most cancellations concentrated on Asia-America routes at 58%, followed by Europe-America at 32% and Asia-Europe/Mediterranean at 10%.
Air freight faced operational challenges as safety warnings regarding Iranian airspace forced airlines to reroute Asia-Europe services through Central Asia or the Arabian Peninsula, adding 10-30 minutes to flight times and increasing fuel consumption. Despite higher operational costs, capacity on Asia-Europe lanes increased 13% during the week, causing spot rates to fall.
Port congestion remained elevated in Germany, with Hamburg experiencing an average delay of eight days due to winter weather-related container backlogs. Bremerhaven showed a one-day average delay, while Rotterdam faced one-day delays and Antwerp averaged three-day delays.
Global fleet growth is projected to slow to approximately 3% in 2026, closely matching expected demand growth. The slowdown results from reduced ship orders in 2023, though a massive wave of new capacity remains in the pipeline for 2027-2029 driven by expansion from carriers including MSC, which now holds 21% market share.
This newsarticle is part of a more comprehensive analysis on the global freight market. For the full market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2629