November 6, 2025 — Coffee futures climbed to $387.7 cents per pound this week, with strong roaster demand and the approaching index roll period preventing the anticipated correction.
Weekly price movement
The March coffee contract rose 17.75 US cents per pound from Monday to Monday, according to analysis from Sucafina.
Prices dipped to $359.2 cents on Tuesday before stabilizing throughout the week, avoiding the more significant selloff to around $3.50 per pound that some market observers had anticipated.
Factors supporting prices
Several developments contributed to current price levels:
Active roaster buying. Heavy fixation activity for December contracts helped prevent the expected price decline. Roasters are covering their outstanding positions, creating sustained demand.
Record-high inversion. The difference between December and March contracts reached record levels, drawing renewed attention as the index roll period approached.
Declining inventories. ICE certified coffee inventories fell again by week’s end, tightening available supply.
No tariff relief. The US administration has made no movement on alleviating coffee tariffs. Speculators who may have sold in anticipation of a deal with Brazil could have been forced to buy back positions.
Market outlook
The market’s focus now shifts to the index roll period and remaining December coverage needs.
Over the past 18 months, roaster fixation demand has consistently outpaced origin selling during the window between index roll and options expiry, with speculators taking advantage of this pattern.
While the current fixation situation appears less urgent than in previous periods, the market direction during this open interest roll period remains upward.
The analyst projects March futures could reach $4.00 per pound by the end of this week.
Want to keep up with real-time coffee prices and price forecasts? go to: app.vespertool.com.