Coffee futures rallied toward $3 per pound as renewed geopolitical tension added momentum to an already tightening market.
The most active May contract rose 12.3 cents over the past week to settle at $2.969 per pound. Fresh speculative interest emerged as the escalation of conflict involving Iran increased volatility across commodity markets.
Shipping routes are also drawing attention. The potential disruption of traffic through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz could slow shipments from East Africa, where Ethiopian and Ugandan coffees have recently served as substitutes for Brazilian natural Arabicas.
Brazilian farmers continue to hold a significant share of the remaining 2025/26 crop, waiting for higher prices before releasing supply. Any delays in East African exports would increase reliance on Brazilian coffee, strengthening sellers’ position.
Current crop offers remain limited, although exports from East Africa are expected to increase from March onward. Against this backdrop, the market is watching whether prices can break above the $3 threshold.
Technical resistance is expected between $3.10 and $3.15 per pound if the rally continues.
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