Chocolate manufacturers are navigating an ingredient landscape that looks very different today from where it started the year. Cocoa has come down sharply, but other input costs have moved in the opposite direction. Understanding the full picture is what separates a well-timed contract from an expensive one.

Here’s the overview for H2 2026.

Cocoa is the headline story. The 2025/26 season is expected to show a surplus of around 250,000 tonnes, and prices are trading 63% lower year-on-year. Conditions at origin are more complex: a disconnect between lower futures and elevated farmgate prices in Ghana and Ivory Coast has left cocoa stocks piling up unsold, and significant structural challenges remain to supply growth in West Africa. The mid-crop harvest looks favourable, but uncertainty around the 2026/27 season opening in Q4 adds a potential volatility window.

Sugar markets, both raw and white, are under near-term surplus pressure, with European delivered white sugar prices expected to remain stable through Q2. The crude oil price influences how much Brazilian cane goes to sugar versus ethanol, making the energy complex a key driver of the sugar outlook as well.

Glucose syrup and dextrose are range-bound after their 2025 correction, with energy costs the main risk heading into H2.

On the dairy side, SMP has turned firmly bullish on the back of a US production shortfall that has effectively redirected international buyers toward European and New Zealand origins. WMP is trading higher too, with EU and New Zealand prices converging to their closest point since late 2021. SWP has moved above US levels, and WPC80 is close to sold out globally for Q2. Lactose and whey permeate remain stable and well-supplied.

Vegetable oils used in chocolate production, palm, soybean, and rapeseed, are all elevated, primarily driven by Brent crude. Lauric oils including coconut and palm kernel oil have retreated from their 2025 peaks and are expected to average below last year’s levels in 2026.

Almonds are facing crop uncertainty from late-February California rainfall during pollination. Walnuts offer a more favourable buying environment on the back of a record 2025 crop.

The full Vesper Chocolate H2 2026 Market Outlook covers each ingredient with detailed price forecasts and procurement analysis. Free download: https://vespertool.com/download/chocolate-h2-2026-market-outlook/