The wholesale weighted broiler cutout value averaged nearly $1.00 per pound in 2025, compared to the projected $0.99 per pound forecast made in early January 2025, according to LEAP Market Analytics’ annual accuracy review.

The composite outlook was close to spot-on, though results at an individual product category level were decidedly mixed.

Forecast misses across product categories

The biggest misses were on boneless skinless breast meat, tenderloin, wing, and boneless skinless thigh meat markets. The mean absolute percentage error on the tenderloin outlook approached 10%, with percentage errors extending well into double-digit territory for the other three.

The outlook for boneless skinless breast meat, tenderloins, and boneless skinless thigh meat was too bearish while the wing outlook was too bullish. These directional differences partially offset the misses on the other three in the composite calculation.

Forecasts aimed slightly too high on bone-in thighs and mechanically deboned chicken while being moderately conservative on the drumstick market. Each of these misses was between 5% and 10%.

Closest forecasts

The closest calls were on the whole broiler and leg quarter markets. The leg quarter forecast had an absolute error of just half a cent, representing 1% deviation.

This compares to 2024 where the error was roughly 13% at a composite level, with forecasts aiming too low on every market except drumsticks and mechanically deboned chicken.

Methodology limitations

The accuracy review uses a narrow snapshot from early January 2025 for comparison. This provides limited insight regarding forecast accuracy from other time periods throughout the year, such as November 2024, March 2025, or any other chronological perspective aside from the early January reference point.

The review centers on annual averages but doesn’t examine forecast accuracy at shorter intervals such as weekly, monthly, or quarterly periods. Individual observations contributing to the aggregate annual average may have wider error bars than the annual composite suggests.


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