Bakery procurement in H2 2026 is shaped by a mix of signals: some ingredients are softening, others are under renewed pressure, and a handful are in genuinely tight supply. Knowing which is which matters when you’re negotiating contracts, building budgets, or deciding when to cover.

Here’s what the key markets are telling us heading into the second half of the year.

Wheat flour remains volatile. Record global production has been exerting downward pressure for months, but Brent crude-linked cost increases and Q2 weather risk in the Northern Hemisphere are keeping the market from moving cleanly lower. The 2026/27 global crop is expected to come in below this season’s record levels, which could support prices from Q4 onward.

Starches, both potato and tapioca, are at or near multi-year price lows following a bumper 2025 harvest in Europe and increased global competition. Energy and fertiliser cost increases may put a floor under further declines, but the current environment is broadly favourable for buyers.

Eggs remain tight. Avian flu outbreaks have driven extensive flock cullings across Europe, keeping supply constrained and prices elevated. Easter demand concentration adds short-term upward pressure in Q2.

On the dairy side, butter is rangebound in Europe while SMP has turned firmly bullish on the back of a US production shortfall. WMP and SWP are both firmer than expected at the start of the year, and WPC80 is close to sold out for Q2 globally.

Vegetable oils are elevated, with Brent crude the dominant driver across palm, soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower. Each oil has its own supply story, but the energy complex remains the common thread. Rapeseed faces a larger harvest in the upcoming season that could bring relief; soybean oil is highly sensitive to US biofuel policy decisions expected in March.

Sugar markets are under surplus pressure near-term, but the ethanol parity dynamic means the crude oil price is directly influencing how much Brazilian cane goes to sugar versus fuel — a key variable to monitor.

Glucose syrup and dextrose have stabilised after a significant 2025 correction, with import competition from Turkey and Brazil keeping conditions range-bound. Energy costs are the main upside risk into H2.

Almonds face crop uncertainty following late-February rainfall in California during the critical pollination window. Walnuts offer one of the more favourable buying environments in years, with California’s record 2025 crop pushing prices below production costs for many growers.

Cocoa markets remain in surplus for the 2025/26 season, with prices trading well below year-ago levels. Farmgate price disconnects at origin and ongoing reformulations by confectionery producers add complexity to the demand picture.

The full Bakery H2 2026 Market Outlook covers all of the above in detail, with price forecasts, supply and demand analysis, and procurement guidance for each ingredient. Free download: https://vespertool.com/download/bakery-h2-2026-market-outlook/