The California almond market is holding firm heading into the close of the crop year, after a May position report that came in stronger than the trade expected on both shipments and sales. The figures, from the Almond Board of California’s June report and flagged by trader ofi, point to tightening supply and steadier pricing.
Shipments for the month reached 217.36 million lbs, above expectations of around 210 million and up 2.6% on last May. Exports did the heavy lifting, rising 2.6% year-on-year and led by a 9% jump to Western Europe; Turkey continued to stand out, up 9% in May and 42% so far this crop year. Domestic demand stayed the weak spot, down 5.5% on the year and still dragging the year-to-date total.
Sales told the firmer story. May sales of 138.75 million lbs were up 55.9% on a year earlier, as buyers and sellers stepped back in to lock volume once early estimates pointed to a 2026 crop similar in size to 2025. Receipts continue to suggest the 2025 crop will finish near 2.695 billion lbs, just under last year, with uncommitted inventory down 5.2%.
Two outside forces are adding support. China has re-entered the US market for inshell almonds after heavy rain hit Australia’s harvest quality, putting it in fresh competition with India for California product. And a sharply smaller 2026 pistachio crop, potentially down from 1.6 billion to around 800 million lbs, is expected to steer some buyers toward almonds as the cheaper alternative.
Growers are reporting earlier-than-normal hull split, so harvest could start 10 to 15 days ahead of schedule, which may cap upside on current-crop prices as new-crop volume appears sooner. Even so, ofi reads the balance as firm: tightening supply, steady demand and a supportive wider nut market leave limited downside through the final two months of the year.
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