India’s spice complex spent the first half of June stuck in the same standoff. Arrivals kept thinning across most of the major mandis, yet buyers refused to chase the market higher. Prices firmed in places and sagged in others, but almost nothing rallied. As Vesper’s latest biweekly report puts it, a floor without a buyer is only a pause, not a rally.

Cumin showed the contradiction most clearly. Unjha arrivals fell back toward 10,000 to 15,000 bags, well below the 65,000-bag peak the trade remembers from early April, and acreage is estimated down 8 to 10 percent nationally. Still, prices only drifted. China stayed absent on a larger Xinjiang crop, Gulf demand remained trapped under the West Asia disruption, and FY2025-26 cumin exports came in 14 percent lower by volume and 25 percent lower by value. Thin supply could not overcome a missing buyer.

Coriander told the opposite half of the story. Baran arrivals dropped to just 250 to 400 bags, and that alone was enough to lift Delhi Badami quotes through the fortnight, supported by export value up 7 percent year on year. Turmeric stayed capricious, caught between a production deficit estimated well below consumption and a cash cycle that keeps forcing holders to sell. Red chilli should have had the cleanest bull case, with Guntur shut for its summer recess and the crop discussed as 25 to 30 percent smaller, but Bareilly supply and a fresh Chinese quality clampdown kept it contained. China rejected at least three Indian dry chilli consignments over alleged pesticide residue and suspended three exporters, and it remains the largest buyer of Indian dry red chilli.

Black pepper stayed in a slow standoff, with Kerala farmers holding crop and buyers staying hand-to-mouth, while the prospect of Sri Lankan imports around July capped sentiment. Cardamom split in two: small cardamom held on weather risk and a strong export year, while big cardamom drifted lower on weak summer demand and Nepal import parity.

The common thread is demand. Across nearly every spice, the supply math leans bullish, but the buyer large enough to make that discipline matter, China or the Gulf, has not returned. Vesper’s near-term read is that floors hold and a meaningful break lower is hard to picture, but the rally most holders want needs a buyer that isn’t in the room yet.

For real-time spices prices, visit: app.vespertool.com.