US nonfat dry milk prices fell about $0.20/lb, or roughly $500/mt, in the space of a week, and global skim milk powder markets moved with them. New Zealand milk powder dropped $200/mt at this week’s GDT pulse event, while European quotations eased from around €2,900 to €2,800/mt. The direction is the same everywhere: powder prices are coming off.
For now the move is driven by extra US production and a demand shift toward European and New Zealand powders. Higher NFDM prices have cooled US demand and lifted supply at the same time. Even so, a wide spread between US and EU/NZ powder looks likely to persist in the coming months.
CME markets reacted sharply to the latest Cold Storage report. Cheese stocks built further as production runs at record levels, and with consumption and exports also at records but not enough to offset supply, cheese prices eased nationwide. Butter stocks managed only a small seasonal increase despite strong production and steady imports, because sub-$1.65/lb prices keep pulling demand. Exports have become the key outlet. Without today’s heavy export pace, US butter stocks would be the highest on record.
The bigger picture is a market that is cooling rather than stalling. US raw milk production hit 19.96 billion pounds in April, up 2.72% year on year and the 14th straight month of growth. What is easing is the pace, not the level: annual growth peaked at 4.55% in November 2025 and has nearly halved since. The build is concentrated in the interior, with the Midwest up 4.35% and the South up 3.97%, while the Northeast slipped 0.21%. About three-quarters of the gain comes from a larger herd, now near 9,645 thousand head, rather than more milk per cow.
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