European cheese prices edged higher over the past few weeks on seasonal temperature gains and Q3 forward buying, before stalling last week as the bulk of that demand was covered. The market appears to be settling into a quiet summer period across most categories, with low trade volume and stable prices likely for the months ahead.

Production has been running well throughout. Seasonally higher milk volumes have kept facilities near capacity in most countries, and in some categories additional supply has been weighing on prices. Cheddar is under the most visible pressure: additional production from Eastern Europe, where more milk is being directed into cheddar curd facilities, has created a persistent supply overhang. That volume has pushed cheddar to an unusual discount of around €100–150/mt against Gouda and Mozzarella — a spread wide enough that buyers are not switching from other cheese types to take advantage of it, with the exception of a few melting applications. European and US cheddar exports are competing for the same customers in third markets, with New Zealand product trading at a premium to both.

Emmental grating quality faces similar dynamics, with cheaper product from outside France building up on spot markets and buyers in no rush to move. French production typically falls after June, and the premium Emmental normally commands relative to other cheeses is expected to gradually reappear — but for now, that correction is still ahead.

Gouda prices recovered over the past few weeks, supported by Q3 buying activity, before that activity quieted considerably. The market is now well-balanced, with spot availability differing between producers and current ages described as well-positioned in Western Europe. The main Q3 buying wave appears to be behind the market.

Mozzarella led the seasonal rally, driven by rising European temperatures and amplified by Q3 forward buying from large buyers locking in volumes. That activity has now largely completed, and as temperatures have eased slightly, so has the intensity of buying. US mozzarella continues to trade at a persistent discount in global markets, reflecting ongoing capacity expansion.

With Q3 coverage largely complete and buyers expected to fill remaining spot needs at a measured pace, the summer months look quiet. For the full category breakdown and seasonal outlook, read the complete Vesper analysis: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3031