California almond shipments outperformed expectations in March. Total shipments reached 257.99 million lbs, well above industry estimates of around 225 million lbs and up 16.5% versus last March’s 221.37 million lbs. Pre-report expectations had been conservative due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing weakness in domestic shipments.

Exports lead the month

Export shipments came in at 205.23 million lbs, up 21% year on year. The UAE saw a 98% decline, in line with expectations given regional tensions. Turkey absorbed much of the rerouted volume, posting a 99% increase for the month, with additional strength from the EU and Vietnam.

India remains behind last year’s pace, with year-to-date shipments down 3%. Handlers reportedly have less inshell availability this year than last, and India will need to step in to secure additional volume given that California’s inshell supply is expected to be tighter and Australia faces weather-related challenges that have limited its inshell availability.

Domestic demand recovers

Domestic shipments came in at 52.76 million lbs, up 1.88% year on year and the strongest domestic month so far this crop year. Year-to-date domestic shipments remain down 15.9%, but commitments are up 3.8% year on year, suggesting a meaningful recovery after a prolonged period of weak domestic demand.

Sales for the month reached 240.65 million lbs, up 10.6% year on year. Much of the recent buying appears to be for prompt needs, consistent with the hand-to-mouth pattern seen across the crop year. This dynamic suggests that a meaningful portion of recent sales could convert into near-term shipment strength.

Receipts for the month were 4.92 million lbs, down 74.2% from last March. Year-to-date receipts total 2.684 billion lbs, just under crop year 2024’s pace, with final crop receipts expected to finish in the 2.69 to 2.7 billion lbs range.

First decline in bearing acreage since 2020

Land IQ’s initial 2026 estimate shows 1.386 million bearing acres, a decline of 3,226 acres from the 2025 initial estimate. This is the first year-on-year decrease in bearing acreage since the initial estimate began in 2020.

Bearish considerations

Year-to-date shipments are down 1.9%, and export commitments are down 1.4% as of March. Since exports have been compensating for weak domestic shipments this crop year, that decline could hinder the strong pace seen in recent months. Demand at current price levels remains uncertain, with most activity focused on prompt shipments rather than forward bookings.

Through March, the industry holds a sold position of 75.1% of total supply, closely aligned with the five-year average of 75.3%. Uncommitted 2025 crop inventory sits at 762.69 million lbs, broadly in line with last year.

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