Coffee futures fell 8.5 cents over the past week to close at USD 2.878/lb on the most active July contract, with the market trading below the USD 2.90 to USD 3.05 range that had held during the most intense period of the Iran conflict.
According to Sucafina analysis, roaster coverage is at much better levels than a year ago, which is the main reason the market has stayed relatively quiet during this period. In 2025, roasters were pushed to fix futures prices at progressively higher levels as they ran out of time approaching contract expiry. This year, the market has been steady to lower, which has given roasters multiple opportunities to fix nearby contracts on sell-offs.
The conflict with Iran appears to be close to resolution, which allowed the market to test below the recent range after moving up to a high of USD 3.00/lb on Tuesday.
The coming week moves coffee into the May contract delivery period. The key question is whether nearby demand for ICE-certified inventories continues, which would keep destination stock levels tight until the Brazilian 26/27 crop starts flowing. It is also possible that more coffee comes to the exchange for May, offsetting nearby certified demand.
Sucafina expects the market to test USD 2.75/lb in the coming week, with potential for a further 10-cent move lower if that level breaks. If it holds, the weekly range of USD 2.80 to USD 2.95 is likely to continue.
For real-time coffee prices, visit: app.vespertool.com