The ongoing conflict in West Asia and the resulting disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are reshaping export flows across multiple Indian spice categories, with exporters reluctant to commit on freight-inclusive terms and buyers leaving forward positions uncovered.
The Strait has been blockaded since 2 March. An 8 April ceasefire was violated within hours by both sides, a US naval blockade of Iranian ports was imposed on 13 April, and the Strait was reopened on 17 April before being closed again the following day. As of 20 April, exporters across multiple spice categories are quoting FOB but declining to commit on CNF or CIF terms, leaving buyers to carry the freight uncertainty themselves.
Cumin arrivals in Unjha have fallen from a seasonal peak of 50,000 to 60,000 bags per day to 5,000 to 6,000, as unseasonal rains during colour development in Bikaner damaged Rajasthan crop quality and farmers withhold selectively. Ground-level estimates of the production decline run at 25 to 30%, above official figures of 8 to 10%. China has returned to the market after eighteen months of working through inventory, with 15 to 20 containers confirmed in mid-March bookings. Singapore-grade cumin is at USD 2,410/MT FOB and Europe-grade at USD 2,490/MT FOB.
Coriander has been climbing since January, up 10 to 12% year to date. New crop arrivals have come in below expectations and carry-forward stocks sit at their thinnest in several years. Romania and Bulgaria, India’s main rivals for European supply, have seen production declines of 30 to 35% and effective pricing out of their usual markets. Eagle Sortex is at USD 1,455/MT FOB.
Black pepper prices at Kochi have barely moved despite Kerala production down 20 to 25%, Karnataka at around half its normal output, and Brazilian imports stopped. Iran, historically one of the largest buyers of Indian pepper, has been effectively off the market since the conflict began. Black Pepper 500g/L sits at USD 7,170/MT FOB.
In cardamom, the picture is different. Guatemala, the world’s largest producer, lost up to 50% of its crop this season, and international buyers have turned to India. Auction averages moved from USD 24.53/kg in late March to USD 26.16 to USD 27.91/kg in early April. Green Cardamom 7-8mm is at USD 30,372/MT FOB.
Red chilli has held better than the arrival volumes suggested it should. China bought enormous volumes at USD 1.18 to USD 1.30/kg last season before going quiet, but farmers had already shifted acreage toward maize, cotton and pulses, tightening supply structurally. S4 Stemless is at USD 2,375/MT FOB.
Turmeric is the one category moving sideways. National sowing area expanded by around 20% this season, with Maharashtra jumping from roughly 78,000 to 105,000 hectares, and weekly arrivals are running 12 to 13% above seasonal norms. Nizamabad GG is at USD 1,670/MT FOB.
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