US broiler production is heading for one of its most significant growth years in recent memory, with ready-to-cook output expected to increase around 3.0% in 2026. Prices for key cuts have recovered from early-year lows but remain well below year-ago levels.

Egg sets and placements above prior-year levels

Egg sets came in at 252.8 million during the week ended April 4, the lowest weekly total since late January but still 1.7% above the same week last year. Over the past six weeks, egg sets have averaged 2.0% above prior-year levels. Chick placements for the same week were up 2.8% year-on-year, with the six-week average tracking 2.3% above year-ago figures.

The recent pullback in egg sets is seen as a sign of moderating expansion. However, livability rates remain strong and well above this time last year, pointing to downstream head counts averaging at least 2.0% above prior-year levels in the near term.

A historically notable expansion

A 3.0% increase in RTC production would be significant by historical standards. The US broiler industry has reached or exceeded that threshold only four times in the past two decades, most recently in 2019. Growth above 4.0% has not been recorded since 2004.

Breast meat prices below last year despite recent recovery

Boneless skinless breast meat averaged $1.19 per pound at the start of 2026 and has since recovered to $1.75 per pound, gaining roughly $0.30 over the past month. Despite that advance, the figure remains well below the $2.65 per pound recorded in the first week of April 2025.

Retail prices averaged $4.17 per pound in March. Frozen breast meat stocks at the end of February stood at 234.4 million pounds, down 7.5% year-on-year but 3.8% above the five-year average for that date.

Demand for b/s breast meat, which ran 60–70% above the long-term baseline average in Q2 2025, has since returned to only slightly above that average, though some recent improvement on a seasonally adjusted basis has been noted. Quick-serve restaurants continue to face consumer pressure, with higher fuel costs adding a further layer of uncertainty to near-term demand.

B/s breast meat is expected to test, and potentially briefly exceed, $2 per pound around the Memorial Day weekend, though a sustained move above that threshold is not anticipated.

Thigh meat demand relatively more supportive

B/s thigh meat is tracking toward a seasonal peak of at least $1.75 per pound in late spring or early summer. The demand picture for thigh meat looks more favourable relative to historical averages than it does for breast meat. Wings remain the weakest part of the complex.

For more broiler analytics, visit: app.vespertool.com