US broiler exports started 2026 on a muted note, with total shipments in February coming in just below 524 million pounds, falling short of forecasts and 4.3% below the same month last year. Cumulative January-February shipments were down 1.1% year on year.
Top destinations leading the decline
The weakness was concentrated among the industry’s top export markets. Mexico, Canada, Cuba, and Taiwan were the primary drivers of the year-on-year shortfall. By contrast, most of the remaining top 10 destinations were importing at least 20% more US broiler meat than in the same period last year, and the broader collection of countries outside the top 10 was also importing more. Vietnam was the strongest mover, more than doubling its pace of imports compared to 2025.
Cuba’s position as a significant destination for US broiler meat appears to be in a longer-term structural decline, driven by the country’s economic difficulties including severe shortages of food, energy, and other critical resources.
Domestic demand provides support
Despite the softer export performance, domestic demand for dark meat cuts has remained healthy. Demand index readings for leg quarters ran 15-20% above the long-run baseline average during Q1 2026, showing slight improvement from average conditions seen for much of 2025. LEAP Market Analytics expects this relative strength to continue, with leg quarter values on a bulk, fresh basis expected to remain in the low $0.50s (USDA) for much of the year.
For the broiler forecast, visit: app.vespertool.com.