The EU sow herd is forecast to shrink further in 2026 due to ongoing environmental restructuring in North-Western Europe. Favourable feed prices are expected, but structural non-feed costs including labour and energy remain a concern, keeping base production costs elevated. Feeder pig prices will remain high due to persistent tightness in the EU breeding herd. Low capital expenditure on new capacity is forecast, suggesting EU production capacity will likely remain stable, with stronger regulatory requirements potentially making it harder for new players to enter the market.
The Spanish pork market is suffering from outbreaks of African Swine Fever, which have caused China to ban pork meat imports from Spain. Since China is one of Spain’s largest pork export destinations, this market is now effectively blocked. This has caused Spain to redirect volumes to European markets, putting significant downward pressure on European prices. The situation is not improving, with new cases reported outside the currently affected area.
The most pronounced impact is on high-value cuts typically consumed in Europe, such as bacon, where the redirected Spanish volumes are creating larger discounts.
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