After the lifting of the ban on Brazilian poultry, chicken meat prices in Europe have decreased significantly. The price decrease started around November 2025, overlapping with an increase in exports to Europe from Brazil. Brazilian chicken exports to Europe more than tripled from 6,225 mt in October to 23,327 mt in November and 24,193 mt in December. As a reference point, Brazil exported around 13,126 mt per month to Europe in November and December 2024, meaning Brazilian exports to Europe have nearly doubled over the course of one year.
European local production is still dealing with avian influenza outbreaks, mainly in Poland, which has 38 reported outbreaks. The wild bird migration season runs from March to May, which may increase the number of outbreaks further.
Brazilian prices for frozen chicken breasts are declining further, which is likely to continue the downward trend in Europe. Further escalation in the Middle East could cause Brazil to be unable to export chicken meat to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both large importers of chicken breasts. If that situation continues, Brazil may redirect volumes toward other destinations such as Japan, South Africa, and the Philippines. Brazilian sellers seeking alternative outlets could represent an opportunity for European buyers.
Up until spring, consumption of poultry meat in Europe is relatively low, with only Easter providing a possible upside. Any potential upward price movement is likely to happen during the consumption peak at the start of summer.
Read the full chicken market analysis in Vesper’s Free Pizza, Pasta & Snacks H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/