Mass avian flu outbreaks have persisted throughout Q1 2026, with scarcity continuing to affect the market. Extensive flock cullings following widespread avian influenza outbreaks across major European producers, combined with stronger seasonal demand from processors preparing for holiday production, have kept the market under pressure.

The reintroduction of containment measures including indoor housing, transport limits, and bans on bird gatherings is tightening supply, particularly for cage-free and organic categories, where availability is expected to remain scarce and premiums elevated.

Availability was expected to gradually improve with new flocks maturing from chicks hatched in spring 2025, but the volume of cullings has been too high for the balance to recover. Prices are expected to stay elevated given higher costs and limited availability of chicks in 2025.

The second quarter may offer some stability, with warmer temperatures reducing the risk of wild bird migration contamination. However, Easter celebrations for both major Christian denominations will coincide this year, concentrating industrial demand in late January and early March and retail demand between late March and early April. This alignment is expected to generate a temporary but notable increase in consumption, adding short-term upward pressure on prices.

With a 300% increase in import quotas approved in November 2025, Ukraine remains an affordable source of industrial eggs. Ukrainian eggs continue to trade below European price levels, though new EU requirements following the renegotiation of the DCFTA, including the phasing out of battery cages, tighter pesticide limits, and stricter veterinary medicine rules, are expected to add upward cost pressure over time.

The EU-Mercosur trade deal raised concerns among European farmers, but the European Parliament voted to refer Mercosur to the European Court of Justice, implying a potential delay of around 18 months even as the Commission signals intent to proceed.

Read the full egg market analysis in Vesper’s Free Bakery H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/