Gouda production across Europe was robust throughout 2025, benefiting from strong milk availability. Despite that production strength, the market has evolved differently than anticipated. Stocks have remained relatively low as consumption and export demand absorbed volumes, and capacity across European cheesemakers is fully utilised with no straightforward pathway to expand.
The wait-and-see strategy adopted by many buyers, who expected the large incoming milk supply to eventually push prices lower, has so far not delivered results. Prices have moved up since the start of February as product availability tightened, and the youth of cheese currently being traded underlines the lack of aged inventory in the market. Producers are selling fresh-made product with little pressure to offer discounts.
Milk production in the Netherlands, one of the largest Gouda-producing countries, is expected to shrink faster than in other regions, leaving a larger gap in Gouda production relative to other cheese varieties.
In H2 2026, European milk production is expected to decline through Q3 and Q4, falling below 2025 levels. This supply tightening should provide support for gradual price improvement beginning in Q3. With stocks already lean heading into the seasonal flush, the recovery may come earlier and more firmly than originally expected.
Read the full Gouda market analysis in the Vesper Dairy H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/
