Coffee prices on the most active May contract fell 3.6 cents over the two weeks ending February 20, settling at 285 US cents per pound. The market is currently navigating a mix of supply signals and policy developments that are pulling in different directions.
US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs: potential refunds for roasters
The most significant news in recent weeks was the US Supreme Court’s ruling against the Trump administration’s use of IEEPA powers to impose widespread tariffs. While coffee has already been exempt from those tariffs since late 2025, the ruling has a practical implication for US roasters: duties paid on green coffee imports last year may be refunded by the US Treasury. The timeline and process for any potential refund are still pending further guidance.
For the broader coffee market, the impact of the ruling is described as largely muted, given that coffee’s exemption from tariffs was already in place.
Supply signals pull in opposite directions
The market is currently weighing two competing factors. On one side, a significant volume of nearby Honduran and Nicaraguan coffee has been arriving to replenish the heavily depleted ICE Certified inventories — adding downward pressure to futures prices.
On the other, differentials for Brazilian and Colombian origins have climbed to historically elevated levels over the past two weeks, which is pulling in the opposite direction.
What happens next depends on roaster demand
The near-term price direction is expected to hinge on whether roasters step in to buy fresh coffee at current higher differentials, or whether they are already sufficiently covered and hold back. If roasters are well covered, prices could break through the 275 cents/lb threshold. If buying returns at a steady pace, the market could find a nearby floor and move back toward $3/lb.
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