European cheese markets have gained ground through February, defying the price correction that many market participants had anticipated. With EU Gouda and Mozzarella both trading at approximately €3,300/mt, the market floor is proving firmer than expected, and that has started to shift buyer behaviour.
Gouda
Gouda prices have moved up since the start of February, with current trading levels reported around €3,300–3,350/mt. The move is largely supply-driven: stock levels are relatively low at the start of the year, as most available product was sold before year-end and production since then has been limited. Producers are holding firm, and the young age of cheese currently being traded, reflecting limited aged inventory, is enabling them to offer predominantly fresh-made product at elevated levels. Offers have been seen as high as €3,450/mt, though these are meeting significant buyer resistance, keeping traded volumes modest and the bid-ask spread wide. Larger buyers appear to have already covered more than 50% of their Q2 requirements and are taking a more opportunistic, month-by-month approach for the remainder.
This week’s Vesper Price Index for Gouda increased to €3,300/mt EXW.
Mozzarella
Mozzarella prices in Europe have also risen quickly since the start of February, following a gradual sentiment shift that began in January. The most recent GDT event confirmed tighter market conditions, with Mozzarella prices rising 4–5% across April and May contract positions over the last two events. Southern European buyers have been particularly active in securing Q2 volumes.
The bid-ask spread remains wide, with buyers looking for product around €3,300/mt while sellers are holding at €3,400/mt or higher. The stronger euro has reduced the competitiveness of European Mozzarella on export markets since mid-January, maintaining a notable gap between EU and US prices. US Mozzarella production continues to expand with additional capacity coming online, keeping American prices competitive globally. The US Mozzarella VPI stands at €2,736/mt EXW, compared to €3,290/mt in Europe.
Cheddar
European Cheddar prices are moving up, with the top of the price range now at €3,300–3,750/mt, though not many trades are materialising at the upper end. Producers are largely sold out for February and March, giving them pricing power in the near term. From late March onward, more product is expected to become available as production ramps up.
In the US, CME cheese prices pulled back this week as bullish sentiment was “flushed out” on the back of high Cheddar production. US domestic cheese disappearance rose around 5% year-on-year in 2025, but a 20% increase in US cheese exports played a key role in keeping stocks low. The EUR/USD rate above 1.18 is currently favouring US exports on global markets.
This week’s Vesper Price Index for Cheddar increased to €3,380/mt EXW.
Emmental
Emmental is an exception to the broader firmness in cheese markets. French production has been running at higher levels due to the large premium compared to other cheese types and elevated milk availability, resulting in more supply on the market. While the broader bullish sentiment across dairy is providing some upward pull, it has not been sufficient to lift Emmental prices, which have remained flat. Volumes of significant size remain more difficult to move, and the spread between Emmental and other cheeses has narrowed to less than €200/mt.
This week’s Vesper Price Index for Emmental remained at €3,500/mt EXW.
The procurement question
The absence of the January price correction has prompted buyers to reassess their approach. Locking in Q2 and Q3 volumes today carries a premium of approximately 10% over spot, but removes the risk of paying higher prices later. Those unconvinced of further price increases are continuing to buy month-by-month. The answer depends entirely on individual market outlook for the remainder of 2026.
This newsarticle is part of a more comprehensive cheese market analysis. For the full anaysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2727
