The second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a modest softening in tomato paste prices relative to the firm levels observed at the start of the year. The market is adequately supplied and not competing aggressively for volume. With the Northern Hemisphere crop season in its early stages and no immediate supply shock priced in, buyers can expect a relatively stable and negotiable pricing environment in Q2.
Running across all three quarters is the risk posed by the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli military strikes against Iran from late February 2026. Oil prices have already increased approximately 8% and European gas prices approximately 20%. With Europe entering the year with gas storage at only 46 bcm, well below the 60 bcm of 2025 and 77 bcm of 2024, vulnerability to sustained LNG supply disruption is material. Tomato paste production is highly energy-intensive, and a prolonged disruption could lift the floor under EU processing costs throughout the season.
In Q3, price behaviour will be heavily influenced by how the California, Italian, and Spanish crops develop. California remains the key variable: while current weather and water conditions are favourable, an acreage reduction of at least 10% and an optimistic yield assumption of 53 t/acre introduce meaningful downside risk to the headline forecast of 8.89 million metric tonnes. In Italy, the lean processor stock position entering the season provides a degree of price support, and any shortfall in Puglia, where the Occhito dam remains at low levels, could tighten Centre-South supply further. Spain’s situation remains uncertain, with contracted acreage undetermined and the risk of crop damage in Extremadura from waterlogged fields and ongoing rainfall.
Toward Q4, a mild firming in prices is expected, broadly back to Q1 levels. This reflects routine seasonal tightening as post-harvest availability is absorbed and year-end trade activity picks up. Global inventories, while declining through the year, are not expected to reach critically low levels by Q4 unless significant crop shortfalls materialise in Q3.
Read the full tomato paste market analysis in Vesper’s Free Pizza, Pasta & Snacks H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/