Thailand’s current sugar crushing season is drawing to a close, but the outlook for 2026/27 is already taking shape, and it points to a meaningful contraction in cane supply.

Crushing activity slowed in the final weeks of the season, dropping from around 1.2 million tonnes of cane per day (TCD) to between 800,000 and 900,000 TCD following unseasonable rainfall. Total cane crushed for the season is expected to reach 96–98 million tonnes before mills close in early April.

For 2026/27, however, the picture looks considerably tighter.

White leaf disease spreads in the north-east

White leaf disease has reduced cane yields across parts of north-eastern Thailand, and affected areas will not be suitable for cane cultivation in the 2026/27 season. The disease, already endemic in neighbouring Vietnam, has spread due to limited use of sterilised seedlings, partly on cost grounds, and tends to expand exponentially once established.

Farmers turning to cassava

With white leaf disease cutting into returns and cane economics under pressure, a significant number of farmers are expected to switch from cane to cassava for the coming season. Cassava root prices are already trending higher, and current returns from the crop are seen as more favourable than cane on a nationwide basis. As a result, total cane crushed is projected to decline to around 86 million tonnes in 2026/27, a notable drop from this season’s expected 96–98 million tonnes.

Labour and harvesting constraints add pressure

The cost of producing cane has also risen. Burnt cane levels are now very low, meaning mills are relying on green cane cutting, which carries higher harvesting costs. The size of many fields and the local topography limit the use of mechanical harvesters. Meanwhile, the availability of migrant labour has declined due to ongoing tensions with Cambodia and the civil war in Myanmar, both of which are affecting the workforce that Thailand’s cane sector has traditionally relied on.

Seasonal and geopolitical complications

The government has stepped in with emergency assistance and a moratorium on bank loan repayments for three mills near the Cambodian border, which have been affected by the risk of unexploded ordnance following military clashes between Thailand and Cambodia in 2025.

This season also marks the first in which mills are authorised to use cane juice for ethanol production. By end-February, volumes had already exceeded one million tonnes, a development that may further influence how producers allocate cane going forward.

Port congestion and export activity

Thai ports are currently experiencing congestion, driven by deliveries of refined sugar against London No. 5 contracts for March–April shipment and a rise in raw sugar loading for Indonesia following the release of import licences. Higher freight rates and demurrage charges are expected as a result.

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