CBOT soybean prices surged to 1,115 U.S. cents per bushel from 1,068 cents per bushel over a two-week period, driven by positive U.S.-China trade developments, biofuel policy clarity, and strong domestic crush demand.

President Trump indicated following talks with President Xi that China may increase purchases of U.S. soybeans this season to 20 million metric tons from approximately 12 million metric tons. The prospect of additional buying lifted CBOT soybean futures as analysts noted that an extra 8 million metric tons could tighten U.S. export availability and push some buyers toward Brazilian supplies instead.

FOB Ukraine soybean prices jumped to $460 per metric ton from $445 per metric ton over the same two-week period.

45Z clarifications boost soy oil demand

New 45Z clarifications by the U.S. Treasury limit tax credits to feedstock produced only in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This cuts credits for imported Chinese used cooking oil and is expected to increase demand for U.S. soy oil in the biofuel sector.

The policy change provides additional structural support for U.S. soybean demand beyond the immediate trade developments with China.

Crush demand remains strong

USDA reported December soybean crush in the United States at 230 million bushels, up from 221 million bushels in November and 218 million bushels in December 2024. This maintains the crush pace on track to reach USDA’s record estimate of 2.57 billion bushels of soybeans crushed in 2025/26, compared to last year’s record-setting 2.445 billion bushels.

The sustained crush demand reflects strong domestic processing activity and continued requirements from both food and biofuel sectors.

Market outlook

Machine learning models show a bullish outlook for CBOT soybean, with technical analysis indicating bullish conditions in both short-term and longer-term timeframes.

The first quarter is expected to face price pressure from the Brazilian harvest, estimated at 177.1 million metric tons, up 3.3% year-over-year according to CONAB. A post-harvest price recovery is possible in the second quarter, although upside may be limited by weaker Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans if trade patterns normalize.

Prices are likely to trade sideways to slightly higher on a seasonal basis in July and August. However, the United States is expected to end the season with large soybean stocks, and a price decline could begin in September. Downward pressure is likely in the fourth quarter from the U.S. harvest and large expected beginning stocks.

A potentially smaller U.S. crop could support a price recovery in November and December, although it remains too early to draw firm conclusions. China’s buying of U.S. beans represents a significant swing factor for the market.

Wheat and corn face downward pressure

Euronext wheat prices decreased to €190 per metric ton from the €194 per metric ton peak two weeks ago due to fading weather concerns and a generally strong euro, making EU origin less competitive.

Previous worries about weather impacts on Russian and U.S. crops have eased. Russian crops were 97% in normal condition as of February 5, up from 87% a year earlier. SovEcon raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 1.1 million metric tons to 45.7 million metric tons, citing a strong pace of shipments and higher-than-expected crop figures.

Euronext corn prices declined to €190 per metric ton from €194 per metric ton two weeks ago. Higher supply estimates, weaker wheat prices, and a generally strong euro weighed on corn prices. The EU Commission raised its 2025/26 corn production forecast by 0.4 million metric tons to 58.2 million metric tons.

CBOT corn moved largely sideways, ending at 430 U.S. cents per bushel. Good demand and clarification on 45Z provided a floor for prices. In the current marketing year, U.S. corn exports surged to 32.61 million metric tons, sharply above 21.76 million metric tons last year.


This article is part of a more comprehensive market analysis. For the full analysis visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2680