Managed money traders now hold a short position of half a million metric tons of cocoa beans. This position size has never failed to hurt them in the past, according to commodity analyst Martijn Bron.

Since the last report, Managed Money has continued adding to their cocoa beans futures short exposure. Despite the strong price rally during and after Thanksgiving, cocoa futures prices remain unchanged versus two weeks ago based on the March 2026 reference maturity.

The exact short exposure of Managed Money in New York remains unknown as the CFTC still hasn’t published the COT report due to the US government’s shutdown backlog. However, the position is large in terms of absolute metric tons and USD value at risk.

Year-end dynamics and profit-taking

Most of these shorts are in the money given the market’s price trajectory to date. As the market heads into year end, some traders may want to lock in those profits. Others late to the party may have little tolerance for losses and have tight stop losses. Quant-led strategies react if the trend is no longer their friend.

Despite fundamentals which are not yet bullish, an outsized, unnatural Managed Money short becomes a self-fulfilling bullish element. This dynamic has proven reliable looking back at nearly two decades of trading and following cocoa markets.

Early 2026 factors

Ahead, regardless of fundamentals, is early 2026 commodity index buying from both the BCOM and GSCI index facilitators. These purchases usually take place in the most liquid month, currently March 2026. This could provide support to the structure, potentially amplified by Ivory Coast and Ghana willing to sell 2026/27 crops forward in a market uptick.

A stronger structure, again regardless of fundamentals, is a classic buy signal to Managed Money.

Also ahead is the Harmattan season, the dry dusty wind from the Sahara. Depending on its intensity, this will lead to headlines about its impact on the tail of the main crop and podset of the mid crops. Weather so far has been of no concern.

Current arrivals and crop outlook

Arrivals are now near last year’s pace after a slow start of the 2025/26 season. The market has been anticipating this strong pace of arrivals, expecting this pace will slow in the coming weeks and start to trend in line with last year’s cumulative arrivals in the first quarter of next year.

The recent pace of arrivals partly reflects larger amounts of carryover supplies from the previous mid-crop, encouraged by higher prices for farmers. Higher prices in Ivory Coast could also keep some Ivory Coast beans in arrival numbers that would have been reflected in other African countries with last year’s price dynamics.

Some crop surveys show that the crop this year is not much better than last year. The main crop might even be slightly poorer than a year ago due to dry weather from a few months ago.

Cocoa arrivals at ports in Ivory Coast had reached 618,000 metric tons by November 23rd since the start of the season on October 1, down 3.9% from the same period last season. About 102,000 metric tons were delivered between November 17th and November 23rd, up from 94,000 metric tons in the same week of the previous season.

Exchange stocks and market data

Certified valid London exchange bean stocks increased to 39,670 metric tons per November 28th, versus 34,150 metric tons in the last report. ICE New York exchange bean stocks decreased to 111,000 metric tons versus 115,000 metric tons in the last report.

Versus Friday November 21st, cocoa futures in London increased by 4.9%, and versus two weeks ago decreased by 0.9%. In New York, March cocoa futures increased by 6.7% versus Friday November 21st, and versus two weeks ago increased by 0.9%.

The net Managed Money position in London decreased by 7,300 lots to 26,300 lots short per cutoff day November 25th. In New York, the last net reported position was 6,000 lots long, but it is short today, similar to London. How much Managed Money has sold in New York remains best guessing, likely well over 25,000 lots.

This article is part of a more comprehensive cocoa market analysis. For the full cocoa market analysis, visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2489