In an unconventional policy move, Ivory Coast has brought forward the start of its cocoa mid-crop season by one month, reclassifying cocoa produced in March as mid-crop rather than main crop. The change, announced by the Le Conseil du Café-Cacao, means that cocoa produced from March onwards will no longer receive the main crop price of 2,800 CFA francs/kg. Instead, a mid-crop price of between 800 and 1,000 CFA francs/kg ($1.45–$1.81) will apply from March through August.
The regulator described the measure as intended to boost sales by making Ivorian cocoa more competitively priced, releasing unsold stocks that have been left stranded upcountry, and normalising the commercial flow of cocoa. Extraordinary times, the government said, have been met with extraordinary measures.
Ghana moved first
The move follows Ghana’s earlier decision to reduce its farmgate price by 30%. Ivory Coast’s action was widely anticipated in direction, though the method, reclassifying the crop period rather than directly cutting the headline price, was not. The Le Conseil du Café-Cacao is allowing forward sales of the mid-crop without additional country and quality premiums. The Living Income Differential of $400/t formally remains in place, though farmers have complained that the effective price is now lower than in Ghana.
Supply picture remains well-stocked
Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports reached 1,335 million tonnes by the start of March, running 3.7% below volumes at the same point last season. However, the analysis notes that slower arrivals are not considered a reflection of supply tightness. Significant supply is believed to remain upcountry, and is expected to be released as commercial bottlenecks ease. With mid-crop pricing now set, there is little incentive for producers to hold out.
Weather conditions across cocoa-growing regions remain supportive, with consistent rainfall contributing to a positive supply outlook. The 2025/26 mid-crop is estimated at 350,000–400,000 tonnes.
Bearish tone persists
The broader cocoa market continues to reflect a bearish bias. Speculators remain heavily short: the ICE Europe net short position reached -22,342 lots, while the U.S. net short fund position was -9,991 lots as of the week ending 24 February. European warehouse stocks are stable at around 37,140 mt, while U.S. certified stocks increased to 130,486 mt.
ICE Europe cocoa prices reached a low of 2,057 GBP/t on 27 February before stabilising with modest upward movement. Cocoa butter and cocoa mass prices have fallen sharply month-on-month, down around 36% each. Cocoa powder has been better supported, given more favourable demand dynamics and lower substitution compared to cocoa butter.
The analysis notes that the Middle East conflict introduces some market volatility through passive money flows into the commodity complex, but structurally the conflict is not considered fundamentally bullish for cocoa. Any longer-term impact would most likely come through higher energy costs squeezing already weak processing margins.
Outlook: sideways, with limited near-term catalysts
With the wave of origin policy changes now digested, the market is expected to move broadly sideways in the near term. A sustained recovery would require either signs of production weakness or an earlier-than-expected demand recovery, neither of which appears likely at this stage.
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