European Mozzarella production maintained strong levels throughout 2025, driven by abundant milk availability. However, the expected H1 supply pressure on prices has not played out. Since early February, prices have risen sharply as buyers seeking nearby product have found little availability and been required to accept significantly higher levels.
Buyers who stayed short expecting cheaper spot prices have found little success, and Q2 coverage is increasingly being locked in. The most recent GDT auction confirmed the tighter tone, with prices rising across near-term contracts.
Competition between European and US Mozzarella producers creates additional complexity. US production capacity continues to expand, keeping American prices globally competitive and acting as a ceiling on how far European export prices can push. The stronger Euro since mid-January has further reduced European Mozzarella’s competitiveness on export markets, reinforcing a notable price gap between EU and US origins.
The outlook improves in H2 2026 as European milk production is forecast to decline through Q3 and Q4, dropping below 2025 levels. This supply reduction should support gradual price recovery. Given the already-low stock levels entering the flush period, H2 tightening may prove more supportive than originally assumed.
Read the full Mozzarella market analysis in Vesper’s Free Dairy H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/