The upward trend in cattle and beef prices is expected to continue into 2026, driven by a combination of continuous regulatory pressure on producers and a decreasing herd size. Due to the self-reinforcing nature of herd contraction, the supply problem becomes compounded over time: as the breeding herd shrinks, the number of replacement heifers born each season also falls, reducing future slaughter availability further. This causes the supply tightening to become structural rather than seasonal. The EU herd currently stands at 72 million heads, compared to 74 million heads in 2023 and almost 80 million during 2016.
The decreasing herd size will continue to put upward pressure on cattle prices. The EU is currently mostly self-sufficient in beef production, with around 95% of consumed beef produced locally. However, increasing prices are expected to lead to a growing reliance on imports. EU beef imports increased roughly 18% in 2025 compared to 2024, with the largest import origins being China and the USA. US import volumes have increased partly because the country is also dealing with a very low herd size and is attempting to rebuild it.
Due to higher prices, per capita consumption of beef is expected to decrease during 2026, continuing the shift toward alternatives such as chicken meat, which is comparatively cheaper.
Read the full beef market analysis in Vesper Free Pizza, Pasta & Snacks H1 2026 Market Outlook: https://vespertool.com/downloads/