Corn and wheat prices have moved higher over the past two weeks, supported by rising Brent crude oil prices and downward revisions to 2026 global supply forecasts.

Euronext milling wheat rose to EUR 207/mt from EUR 202/mt, while CBOT SRW wheat increased to 608 US cents/bu from 583.75 US cents/bu. Euronext corn climbed to EUR 210/mt from EUR 202/mt, and CBOT corn advanced to 470 US cents/bu from 443.75 US cents/bu.

Brent crude oil is currently trading between USD 106–108/barrel, up from USD 98/barrel two weeks ago, as energy infrastructure damage continues amid the Middle East conflict and movement through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult. Higher oil prices support ethanol blending economics, which in turn provides a floor for corn and wheat. The USDA ethanol benchmark has risen to USD 593/mt from USD 552/mt prior to the conflict.

On the supply side, the IGC now forecasts global wheat production will fall to 822 MMT in 2026/27, down from 845 MMT in the previous season. Coceral has also trimmed its forecast for 2026 soft wheat production in the EU and the UK to 142.6 MMT, from 143.9 MMT projected in December. Weather concerns in the US add to the downside supply picture. For corn, the IGC projects global production will decline to 1.30 BMT in 2026/27, from 1.32 BMT the prior season.

The analyst outlook for wheat points to upward price risk in Q2, particularly during the April–May weather risk window, with the Middle East situation a potential additional support factor. In Q3, attention is expected to shift to the July harvest and evolving production estimates, which could bring downward pressure. By Q4, lower 2026/27 supply confirmations from global agencies are expected to be supportive, though high beginning stocks may limit the upside.

For corn, strong demand and seasonal weather risks are seen as price-supportive in Q2. Harvest pressure from the US and Latin America is expected to weigh in Q3 and Q4, though a price recovery is possible in November–December on the back of lower expected production in some countries for the 2026/27 season.



Read the full analysis for free at: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2815