Cocoa grindings are on track to remain well below historical levels through the 2025/26 season, with the latest data pointing to continued volume pressure across the chocolate industry.

European grindings signal an extended challenge

European cocoa grindings fell 8.3% in Q4 2025, a steeper drop than markets had anticipated and the sixth consecutive quarterly decline. Europe accounts for around 37% of global cocoa processing, making it a key indicator of demand health for the broader industry.

Manufacturers’ cocoa procurement is largely hedged and forward-looking, meaning input cost relief typically lags behind spot price moves by six to twelve months. This makes further retail price increases in the first half of 2026 likely, reinforcing pressure on consumer volumes.

Easter chocolate sales track lower in the US

In the United States, Easter chocolate sales are tracking toward an estimated decline of around 5%, with downside risk reaching 9% if late-season demand fails to improve. Easter typically acts as a meaningful seasonal catalyst for chocolate volumes, but this year’s performance is more muted. Volume pressure alongside high consumer prices are the primary drivers.

Ivory Coast grind falls behind last season

In Ivory Coast, total cocoa grindings from the start of the 2025/26 season in October reached 280,530 mt by the end of February, down 5.9% from the same period last season, according to exporters’ association GEPEX.

Fertilizer supply at risk for West Africa

West Africa’s cocoa sector faces an additional challenge on the supply side. The Middle East conflict has significantly restricted supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route for fertilizers. Agricultural commodity trader ETG has warned that cocoa and cotton farmers in the region stand among the hardest hit globally, with some governments severely short of crop nutrients heading into the planting season.

“If they don’t do something now, then they miss the season and it will have a long-term repercussion,” said ETG’s head of farm inputs Ashish Lakhotia.

Hartree completes Touton acquisition

In industry news, Hartree Partners has completed its acquisition of Touton, a leading independent soft commodity trading company with deep expertise in cocoa, coffee, and ingredients. Touton will continue to operate under its current brand and leadership.

The full cocoa market analysis, including futures positioning, arrivals data, and the outlook for the quarters ahead, is available on the Vesper platform.


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