Market outlook | h2 2026
The global sugar surplus is intact. For now. Here's the H2 view.
Raw sugar at $13.93/lb reflects a well-supplied market through Q2. Brazilian exports are running above year-ago levels, the 2025/26 global surplus is intact across forecasters, and Indian export volumes remain well below authorised levels.
But H2 carries more uncertainty: Brazil's sugar-ethanol allocation through Q3, Indian production trajectory, and El Niño probability all shape the Q4 picture.
This report covers white and raw sugar, glucose syrup, and dextrose for food manufacturers, confectioners, and beverage producers.
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"A credible monsoon disruption scenario could shift the Indian balance materially and provide a late-season fundamental catalyst, but it remains too early to price in with confidence."
Gabrielle Del'Arco
Sugar Analyst, Vesper
The variables that shape Q4
The sugar market's near-term direction is bearish. But the H2 picture is less settled than current prices suggest.
Brazil's crush recovery, ethanol parity economics, and Indian export policy all introduce variables that could shift the balance meaningfully in Q3 and Q4.
Buyers planning H2 contracts need to understand where the upside scenarios come from before locking in.
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