Market outlook | h2 2026
Your pizza, pasta & snacks ingredient costs, mapped for H2 2026
Pizza. pasta & snacks procurement spans grains, proteins, cheeses, sauces, and oils, each with its own market dynamics heading into H2.
Wheat is volatile on weather and geopolitical risk. Protein markets remain historically tight. Olive oil is stabilising after two exceptional seasons.
This report gives procurement teams a forward view across nine ingredient categories to plan purchasing, benchmark costs, and manage risk through the second half of 2026.
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"The Vesper-calculated price index for French flour peaked at EUR 313/mt in early March 2026. A tighter 2026/27 wheat season and ongoing Middle East risk keep upside price scenarios firmly on the table for H2."
Justine Rayne White
Softs Analyst, Vesper
What to expect
Two signals pointing in different directions
Record global wheat production is currently keeping flour prices under pressure, but the 2026/27 crop is forecast at around 810 million tonnes, down roughly 3% from this season's record.
Q2 is also a key weather-risk window for Northern Hemisphere yields. For pizza, pasta & snacks buyers contracting flour for H2, the near-term signal and the medium-term direction point in different directions.
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Commodity Copilot is an AI analyst built into Vesper. Ask it anything about the ingredients in this report: current prices, forward views, supply and demand drivers. You get an immediate answer drawn exclusively from Vesper's verified database of prices, forecasts, and expert analysis.
Every answer includes full source citations, so you can follow the reasoning and use it with confidence in your own purchasing decisions.