Market outlook | h2 2026
Seven vegetable and lauric oil markets, one H2 2026 forward view
From olive oil off its EUR 5,000/mt peak to palm, rapeseed, and soybean markets shaped by biodiesel mandates and geopolitical factors, oils and fats procurement is rarely straightforward.
This report tracks price trends, feedstock dynamics, and supply-demand balances across all major edible and lauric oil categories, so food manufacturers and commodity traders can plan sourcing and manage cost risk through the second half of 2026.
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"The 2025/26 olive oil season is generally viewed as a normalization year rather than one characterised by supply shortages. A more stable market balance is expected following two highly volatile seasons."
Gehrman Kosenkov
Oils & Fats Analyst, Vesper
A normalization, not a reversal
Extra virgin olive oil prices peaked at around EUR 5,000/mt in November 2025 and have since declined to the EUR 4,300–4,600/mt range.
EU production is forecast slightly lower year-on-year, but opening stocks were significantly higher than a year ago. With EU consumption at around 1.425 million tonnes and total supply expected to stay adequate, a broadly sideways to mildly firmer price trend is anticipated through the remainder of the season.
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