midyear report 2026
The global sugar surplus is intact. For now. Here's the H2 view.
Raw sugar at $13.93/lb reflects a well-supplied market through Q2. Brazilian exports are running above year-ago levels, the 2025/26 global surplus is intact across forecasters, and Indian export volumes remain well below authorised levels.
But H2 carries more uncertainty: Brazil's sugar-ethanol allocation through Q3, Indian production trajectory, and El Niño probability all shape the Q4 picture.
This report covers white and raw sugar, glucose syrup, and dextrose for food manufacturers, confectioners, and beverage producers.
Ready to get your hands on industry leading data?
"A credible monsoon disruption scenario could shift the Indian balance materially and provide a late-season fundamental catalyst, but it remains too early to price in with confidence."
Gabrielle Del'Arco
Sugar Analyst, Vesper
One market, two directions. Which one sets your price?
The supply recovery came from all three big origins at once, with Brazil, India and Thailand adding to the world balance through the half. Europe pulled the other way, cutting beet area for 2026/27 and bracing for a materially smaller crop that kept EU white sugar relatively firm.
The white premium widened through H1 as world raws stayed weak. The report sets out Vesper's supply, demand and price outlook through 2026 and into 2027, so your next buying decision rests on a forecast rather than a headline.
Prefer to check the data on the spot?
Meet Commodity Copilot. Ask any market questions, get a sourced answer in seconds.
Commodity Copilot is an AI analyst built into Vesper. Ask it anything about the ingredients in this report: current prices, forward views, supply and demand drivers. You get an immediate answer drawn exclusively from Vesper's verified database of prices, forecasts, and expert analysis.
Every answer includes full source citations, so you can follow the reasoning and use it with confidence in your own purchasing decisions.