Market outlook | h2 2026
Cocoa prices are 63% lower year-on-year. Here's what H2 holds.
After two years of record prices, the cocoa market is rebalancing. But the H2 2026 picture is more layered than the headline number suggests.
Surplus conditions, recovering grindings, ongoing reformulations, and early uncertainty around the 2026/27 season all shape what comes next.
This report covers cocoa, sweeteners, dairy powders, oils, and tree nuts for chocolate and confectionery procurement teams.
Ready to get your hands on industry leading data?
“H2 2026 could bring some relief for consumers with price declines in chocolate confectionery. Producers have been able to lock in lower costs versus last season.”
Justine Rayne White
Softs Analyst, Vesper
What the price drop doesn't tell you
Cocoa futures fell around 45% in the three months through Q1 2026, but farmgate prices and structural supply challenges remain. There is also a real question about what the 2026/27 season brings as it opens in Q4.
Procurement teams locking in H2 contracts need to understand the gap between the futures signal and physical market realities.
Prefer to check the data on the spot?
Meet Commodity Copilot. Ask any market questions, get a sourced answer in seconds.
Commodity Copilot is an AI analyst built into Vesper. Ask it anything about the ingredients in this report: current prices, forward views, supply and demand drivers. You get an immediate answer drawn exclusively from Vesper's verified database of prices, forecasts, and expert analysis.
Every answer includes full source citations, so you can follow the reasoning and use it with confidence in your own purchasing decisions.