Market outlook | h2 2026
Plan your bakery ingredient purchases for H2 2026
Wheat prices are moving on geopolitical risk and a record 842 mmt global harvest. Butter is tight. Oils are shifting.
This report gives bakery procurement teams a forward view across 15+ ingredient categories: flour, eggs, and starches through dairy, oils, sweeteners, and nuts.
Use it to plan purchasing, set budgets, and defend the decisions you make.
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Global wheat production for the 2026/27 season is expected to fall short of this season's record levels. That gap could support price recovery from Q4 onward.
Gehrman Kosenkov
Oils & Fats Analyst, Vesper
Near-term lower, Q4 uncertain
Bakery procurement faces a split picture in H2. Near-term price pressure from a record 2025/26 wheat harvest eases as the 2026/27 crop comes into focus, forecast at around 810 million tonnes, down roughly 3% from this season.
Buyers contracting now need to know where flour prices are likely to move before committing.
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Commodity Copilot is an AI analyst built into Vesper. Ask it anything about the ingredients in this report: current prices, forward views, supply and demand drivers. You get an immediate answer drawn exclusively from Vesper's verified database of prices, forecasts, and expert analysis.
Every answer includes full source citations, so you can follow the reasoning and use it with confidence in your own purchasing decisions.