Basmati rice had the most eventful fortnight of any market in Vesper’s biweekly report. Most grades gained $8 to $10 per quintal net, the largest move of the period, and the force that mattered most by the close was physical scarcity rather than geopolitics.
The fortnight opened with a fear-driven correction still in place, then reversed almost immediately once news of the June 17 US-Iran memorandum spread. 1121 Sela climbed from around $97 to $103-104 per quintal by June 24, with 1401 Steam moving similarly as exporter buying arrived in waves. By June 25, mills were quoting 1401 Steam with no guarantee the material would even be available.
Behind that sits a genuine shortage. Old paddy has become acutely scarce at mills across Amritsar, Tarn Taran and the Haryana belt, which traders link to last season’s untimely rain and Punjab flooding that cut regional paddy output an estimated 37 to 38 percent below average. The new Saathi crop is arriving 20 to 22 percent larger than last year, but roughly 70 percent of it is expected to be consumed within Uttar Pradesh, and stockists absorbed the arrivals as fast as they showed up.
The report also separates sentiment from fact on the Strait of Hormuz: the June 17 memorandum set up a 60-day negotiating window, and shipping conditions stayed unsettled through the period, with roughly 60,000 tonnes of basmati in transit to West Asia flagged as at risk at one point. Traders’ view by the close is that the physical shortage is now the dominant force, more durable than whatever happens next with Hormuz, and a further $8 to $10 per quintal move higher is achievable if mills stay this short of milling-ready paddy.
The full report adds the GI dispute over APEDA’s new law firm, Pakistan’s extended duty-drawback scheme, and the non-basmati picture.