Grain prices fell over the past two weeks as improving weather in the US and EU, weaker soybeans, and softer Brent crude pulled the complex lower. Grains gave back recent gains across wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans, with the bearish tone running through every market.
Euronext milling wheat dropped to EUR 203/mt from EUR 211/mt, and CBOT SRW wheat fell to 587.5 cents/bu from 622.5 cents/bu. Higher Russian production forecasts added weight: IKAR lifted its 2026 Russian wheat crop estimate to 91.5 mmt, while SovEcon raised its own to 90.3 mmt on favourable moisture. APK-Inform revised Ukraine’s 2026 wheat harvest up to 21.7 mmt. The picture is not uniformly soft, though. The European Commission cut its EU 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9 mmt after recent heatwaves, and US winter wheat remains in poor shape at just 25% good or excellent, well below the five-year average.
Corn followed the same path. Euronext corn eased to EUR 217/mt and CBOT corn fell to 419 cents/bu, pressured by bearish soy, better US weather, and a fast Brazilian second-crop harvest. AgRural reported 4.4% of Brazil’s second corn crop harvested by 4 June. Barley tracked the wider complex lower, with the IGC subindex down to 238.43, even as the Commission trimmed the EU 2026/27 barley crop.
Soybeans led the move down. CBOT soybeans dropped to 1,123 cents/bu on a record global production outlook, the absence of fresh Chinese buying, and profit-taking ahead of the WASDE report. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s crop to 50 mmt, one of the best yields on record.
Vesper’s outlook points to harvest pressure outweighing geopolitical risk through Q3, with lower 2026/27 global supply offering some support later in the year.
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