European and US grain markets moved in opposite directions this week. Euronext milling wheat climbed to EUR 214/mt from EUR 213/mt at the previous report, while CBOT SRW wheat fell to 648 cents/bu from 678 cents/bu, as diverging weather conditions pulled the two benchmarks sharply apart.

France, the UK, and Spain are experiencing record temperatures for May, raising concerns about crop damage during sensitive spring growth stages. Germany’s farm cooperative association DRV forecast the 2026 wheat crop at 22.57 million tonnes, down 2.5% year-on-year. The IGC lowered its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast to 820 million tonnes. Euronext corn followed a similar path, rising to EUR 220/mt from EUR 211/mt, with DRV also projecting Germany’s 2026 corn crop down 2.6% to 4.81 million tonnes. A weaker euro provided additional support for European-priced contracts.

In the US, the picture is more constructive. Beneficial rainfall over the holiday weekend boosted soil moisture across Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota. As of May 24th, 86% of the US corn crop had been planted, ahead of the five-year average of 83%. CBOT corn fell to 458 cents/bu from 477 cents/bu on the weather improvement and USD strength. US winter wheat conditions remain under pressure, just 28% of the crop is currently rated in the top category, down from 52% at the same point last year, but the rainfall meant poor conditions were largely priced in before the data landed.

On barley, the IGC raised its 2026/27 global production forecast slightly to 147.1 million tonnes, though that remains below last year’s 154.8 million tonnes. MARS cut its EU barley yield estimate to 5.06 mt/ha, down 2% month-on-month. In Turkey, a 50% increase in barley production to around 9 million tonnes is projected for 2026.

CBOT soybeans declined to 1,186 cents/bu on US weather improvement and limited new information from the US–China trade framework, despite China and the US reportedly agreeing in principle to reduce agricultural tariffs.

For the full commodity-by-commodity outlook across wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans, read the complete Vesper report: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3027