The US-China summit delivered less than the grains market was hoping for. No new commitments to purchase US soybeans, no tariff reductions announced, and no signal that China would shift away from Brazil as its preferred origin. CBOT soybeans fell from 1,207 to 1,174 cents per bushel, and the selling pulled the entire grains complex lower. Euronext corn dropped from EUR 225 to EUR 207 per tonne over two weeks. The International Grains Council barley sub-index slipped from 235 to 230.

The wheat picture is more complicated. Prices ended the period lower than they started, but the fundamental case remains intact underneath. Crop scouts on the annual Wheat Quality Council tour put Kansas yield potential at a projected three-year low of 38.9 bushels per acre, well below the five-year tour average of 45.5. The USDA May WASDE cut global 2026/27 wheat production by 0.33 million tonnes to 843.84 million tonnes and trimmed ending stocks to 279.21 million tonnes, down 4.17 million tonnes year-on-year. The US Climate Prediction Center puts an 82% probability on El Nino developing between May and July 2026, with a 96% chance of persistence through winter. A strong El Nino could bring drier conditions to Australia, adding another supply risk to an already tight picture. Reuters reported that Asian flour millers are moving to secure wheat coverage after an absence of over two months.

For soybeans, the surplus story is hard to ignore. The May WASDE added 13.94 million tonnes to the global 2026/27 production forecast, bringing total output to 427.6 million tonnes. Brazil’s Conab raised its 2025/26 crop estimate to a record 180.1 million tonnes, with exports forecast at 116 million tonnes. Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange put its crop estimate at 50 million tonnes, up from 48 million. The market is waiting on whether concrete details emerge on China’s tariff intentions.

For corn, the USDA’s sharp upward monthly revision to the global 2026/27 production forecast created a bearish mood, even though global supply is still expected to be lower year-on-year. Seasonal harvest pressure and further US-China trade developments will likely shape price direction through Q3.

The full Vesper grains report covers the outlook for wheat, corn, barley, and soybeans through Q1 2027: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/3004