US chick placements totaled more than 1.18 billion over the six weeks ending May 2nd, a 2.8% increase from the same period a year earlier, according to LEAP Market Analytics (LMA). Placements briefly dipped to 195.8 million in the week ending April 25th, the smallest weekly total since early March, then rebounded to 198.6 million the following week, the year’s high so far. With improving livability and heavier finishing weights adding to output, LMA expects strong supply at the back end of the chain through Q2 and likely most of Q3.

The growth has been remarkable over the long run. LMA is forecasting US per capita broiler availability at 75.3 pounds this year, a 3.1% increase from 2025 and 29% above 2010 levels. Q1 alone came in at 18.4 pounds on a boneless basis, up 4.3% year-over-year and the biggest quarterly increase since Q4 2022.

That growth is meeting an already-record combined meat supply for US consumers. Per capita availability of beef, pork, and poultry combined is in record territory and still climbing, with broiler accounting for a record-large share. Consumers are being asked to absorb more animal protein per person than ever.

The breast meat tell

The boneless skinless breast meat market is showing the strain. Wholesale spot prices reached a local peak of just over $1.75/lb (USDA) in early April. They’ve already drifted back into the $1.60 area, a counterseasonal pullback so soon after the peak.

The demand picture is the more striking comparison. This time last year, LMA’s b/s breast meat demand index was running 60-70% above the 1992-2024 baseline average. Recent readings are sitting around 5% below the baseline. That’s a sharp reset from one of the strongest demand windows of the past decade.

LMA isn’t calling the move “weak” outright. Freezer stocks are full but not overflowing, breast meat is competitively priced against ground beef and pork loins, and retail price points have pulled back from last summer. The wildcard is the macro backdrop, with the US-Iran conflict feeding into an energy and fertilizer crisis that could push costs higher across the chain.

For now, supply is the variable doing the heavy lifting. Whether demand can keep up will define the rest of the second quarter.


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