Cocoa prices have moved higher in recent sessions, with the front-month May 2026 ICE Europe contract closing 3.7% up at GBP 2,495/t. Market participants point to a shift in focus from demand destruction toward supply risks, with the worst of the demand pressure expected to have passed.

Expectations for a strong finish to the Ivory Coast mid-crop have weakened on less than ideal weather conditions, with rains reportedly below average for most cocoa-growing regions. While quality and quantity of supply are expected to remain firm in the short term, more rainfall is needed to support a strong finish. Cocoa arrivals at Ivory Coast ports reached 1.510 million tonnes by 26 April, 0.3% above volumes at the same point last season, with the latest weekly volume of 28,000 tonnes also above year-ago levels.

Financial stress among farmers is shaping the medium-term supply outlook. A recent HSAT survey of cocoa-growing regions found a majority of farmers had not bought any fertilizer for the upcoming two cycles. Only around a third of Ivorian cocoa farmers buy inorganic fertilizer in normal conditions, but those who do are struggling to access and afford supplies. HSAT has flagged a potential impact on the 2027 mid-crop, with the 2027/28 main crop also at risk if high fertilizer and fuel costs persist. Underapplication of fertilizer can also increase disease susceptibility.

In Ghana, farmers have reported delays in payments of up to six months, restricting mid-crop harvest activities. COCOBOD has reportedly completed sales of the 2025/26 crop, but Licensed Buying Companies are still awaiting payments from beans transacted in November.

Funds trimmed their net short position by 7% across both Europe and US cocoa markets, holding a net short of -43,059 lots according to the most recent weekly update. Average industry cover has extended to 10 months, slightly longer than usual, with the GBP 2,500 mark seen as a fair price given current market conditions and second-half uncertainty.

Q1 earnings from FMCG companies have shown some impacts from the broader market environment but a positive read on confectionery as a category. Mondelez CEO Dirk Van De Put noted “a very strong Easter campaign” in Europe and the UK, alongside overall strength in the chocolate category. Nestlé reported it had not taken significant price increases on coffee and cocoa this period, unlike the prior year.


For the full choco outlook, read the full analysis: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2933