Market outlook | h2 2026
US dairy markets are tighter than the numbers first suggested
January US butter production came in up 6% year-on-year, but strong domestic demand and surging exports absorbed all of it. Stocks are now 17% below year-ago levels and sitting at their lowest point in five years.
This report tracks the US dairy sector across all major product categories: milk production and herd dynamics, butter and milkfat, cheese, milk powders (NFDM, SMP, WMP), and whey.
It gives global buyers and traders the context needed to anticipate price moves and source strategically through H2 2026.
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“US butter stocks are down 17% versus a year ago, around 15% below the five-year average, and sitting at their lowest level in five years. The original expectation of comfortable stock builds has not materialized.”
Jasper Endlich
Dairy Analyst, Vesper
The build that didn't happen
The bearish picture originally anticipated for US butter has not played out. Production grew, but demand and export activity absorbed the increase.
The US market moves differently from European dairy dynamics, and for global buyers sourcing across both, understanding those divergences is what makes the difference between a good H2 contract and a costly one.
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