Cocoa markets have deteriorated sharply, with prices now down approximately 35% over the past month and around 70% below levels seen at the same time last year. ICE EU March 2026 settled at £2,438/t on February 17, down 11% week-on-week.

The primary driver is an accumulating supply overhang at origin. In West Africa, farmgate prices that were set well above world market prices in Q4 have left exporters holding significant volumes of unsold beans. Ghana moved first, cutting its farmgate price for all new sales in the 2025/26 season by nearly 30%. The new price is set at 41,392 cedis (roughly $3,770/t), down from 58,000 cedis (roughly $5,280/t). Ghana’s Finance Minister also announced plans to link farmgate prices to world market prices going forward, with farmers set to receive 70% of the FOB price.

Ivory Coast is widely expected to follow with a similar reduction, though the official price remains in force until the end of March. Reports indicate farmers are already being offered rates significantly below the official level, with limited ability to refuse given high inventory levels. Marex estimates that around 200,000 tonnes of main crop cocoa from Ghana and Ivory Coast combined remains to be sold and hedged, maintaining bearish hedging pressure on world market prices.

In Ivory Coast, cocoa arrivals at ports reached 1,289 million tonnes by February 15, some 4.4% below volumes at the same time last season. Origin grinding for the 2025/26 season was reported at 227,472 tonnes at end-January, 7.4% lower than the same period last year, with January alone running 2.1% below last year. Grinding volumes are not rising fast enough to clear the domestic surplus.

Speculative positioning has amplified the move. In the week to February 10, managed money increased short positions on both London and New York exchanges. European funds are net short at -21,656 lots, their most bearish positioning since mid-December. US funds increased their net short to -15,092 lots. Combined, fund positioning represents a physical short equivalent to roughly 400,000 tonnes, approximately the size of the global surplus Marex projects for the 2025/26 season.

In the products market, cocoa powder is showing more price resilience than the rest of the complex, with the current EXW Europe price at €5,603/mt (-0.7% month-on-month). Cocoa mass and cocoa butter have fallen over 35% versus last month, at €4,014/mt and €5,066/mt respectively. Industry cover is reportedly around eight months overall.

Looking at the broader demand picture, discussions around cocoa alternatives are increasingly assuming that demand lost to reformulation will not return regardless of price levels. Fuji Oil’s Q3 results highlighted continued weakness in pure chocolate sales, with the company noting sales progress after price revisions had been slower than expected.


This newsarticle is part of a more comprehensive market analysis. For the full analysis visit: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2725?commodity=cocoa