Dry weather is expected across much of Europe over the coming days, according to the latest crop analysis from EarthDaily Agro, while China’s central corn and soybean regions prepare for potential frost damage.
The European Corn Weather Model (ECMWF) forecasts a predominantly dry trend across the continent, with the Global Forecast System (GFS) predicting slightly more rainfall in southern regions. This divergence between the two major weather models highlights the uncertainty procurement managers face when planning agricultural commodity purchases.
Meanwhile, heavy rains continue to affect China’s central growing areas, with frost expected in the corn and soybean belt, a development that could impact yields in the world’s largest agricultural commodity consumer.
Global grain production remains stable
Despite these weather concerns, EarthDaily Agro’s production estimates for the 2025 cycle show minimal changes week-over-week across all major regions.
World totals:
Total grains production is projected at 2,919.08 million tonnes, down just 0.04% from USDA estimates but up 5.99% compared to the five-year average.
Wheat production stands at 815.95 million tonnes, remaining flat compared to USDA figures.
Corn production is estimated at 1,284.88 million tonnes, down 0.13% from USDA projections.
Soybean production is projected at 425.24 million tonnes, down 0.15% from USDA estimates.
United States:
Production figures remain unchanged from last week. Corn production is estimated at 425.65 million tonnes, while soybean output stands at 119.74 million tonnes. Wheat production is projected at 51.72 million tonnes.
Brazil:
Soybean production is projected at 169.35 million tonnes, with corn output estimated at 135.09 million tonnes. Wheat production stands at 7.10 million tonnes.
Argentina:
Soybean production is estimated at 47.70 million tonnes, with corn output at 48.55 million tonnes. Wheat production is projected at 21.30 million tonnes.
Australia:
Wheat production is projected at 36.14 million tonnes, exceeding both USDA estimates and last year’s harvest. Barley production stands at 15.91 million tonnes, while rapeseed output is estimated at 7.01 million tonnes.
Europe:
The EU-27 wheat production estimate stands at 136.93 million tonnes, down 2.26% from USDA projections. France, Germany, and Poland remain the dominant producers, accounting for 52% of total European wheat production.
European corn production is estimated at 55.95 million tonnes, with Romania and France together representing 40% of the continent’s output. Barley production stands at 53.49 million tonnes, while rapeseed output is projected at 19.70 million tonnes.
Russia and Ukraine:
Russian wheat production is projected at 85.14 million tonnes, matching USDA estimates. Corn production stands at 14.51 million tonnes, while barley output is estimated at 17.20 million tonnes.
Ukrainian wheat production stands at 22.89 million tonnes, while corn output is estimated at 31.58 million tonnes. Barley production is projected at 5.62 million tonnes.
India:
Wheat production is estimated at 118.64 million tonnes, with corn output at 42.09 million tonnes. Soybean production stands at 11.87 million tonnes.
China:
Corn production is projected at 296.37 million tonnes, with wheat output estimated at 140.36 million tonnes. Soybean production stands at 21.43 million tonnes.
Weather outlook and procurement implications
Europe’s dry pattern
The predominantly dry forecast across Europe comes as the region’s wheat production already tracks 2.26% below USDA estimates. Extended dry conditions during critical growth stages could further pressure yields, particularly for corn which remains sensitive to moisture levels.
The disagreement between major weather models, with ECMWF showing drier conditions than GFS—adds uncertainty to the outlook. Procurement teams sourcing European grains should monitor how this pattern develops over the coming weeks.
China frost risk
Heavy rainfall continues across China’s central growing regions, with frost now expected in the corn and soybean belt. While production estimates remain stable, frost during sensitive growth periods can impact final yields in the world’s largest grain consumer.
Any production shortfalls in China typically translate to increased import demand, which can affect global pricing and availability.
Americas remain favorable
Rain is expected around the borders of South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota in the United States, supporting crop development in key growing states.
Brazil’s outlook appears particularly favorable, with rains expected over the next 10 days in the heart of soybean production areas, especially according to the ECMWF model.
Argentina continues to benefit from mostly dry weather, which supports crop development and harvest operations.
Russia and Ukraine conditions improve
Favorable rainfall has been received in Russia’s winter wheat areas, with additional precipitation expected in the Volga region. Ukraine has also received widespread rainfall in recent days, supporting the start of the wheat season.
What this means for procurement managers
Global production levels remain healthy compared to historical averages, but regional weather developments warrant attention:
European grains:
Monitor dry conditions closely, as extended periods without moisture could tighten regional supply and create pricing pressure for wheat and corn from EU origins.
Chinese demand:
Watch for signals of increased import activity if frost impacts domestic production, particularly for soybeans and corn.
Sourcing flexibility:
Consider diversifying origin exposure given the divergent weather patterns across major producing regions.
While current production estimates show stability, weather remains the primary variable that could shift supply dynamics over the coming months.
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