Coconut oil prices have declined sharply this week, with EXW Manila prices falling $240/mt to $2400/mt from $2640/mt in the same period last week, as weak demand pressures suppliers across origin markets.

The price decline contrasts with CIF Rotterdam prices, which increased to $2675/mt from $2600/mt, highlighting the divergent dynamics between origin and destination markets.

Market participants attribute the origin price weakness to poor demand and stockpiling, while consumption at destinations remains very low.

Philippine export volumes decline significantly

The Philippines, a major coconut oil producer, exported only 300,000 mt of coconut oil (both crude and refined) during May-August, compared to 561,000 mt in the same period last year – representing a 47% decline in shipments.

This reduction in export volumes coincides with falling copra prices in the Philippines, where Quezon prices have dropped from $1600/mt to $1230/mt.

The declining copra prices may signal either high inventories, improved copra production, or a combination of both factors affecting the domestic Philippine market.

Production outlook improves for 2025

Looking ahead, the International Coconut Community (ICC) has revised its outlook upward, projecting 2025 coconut oil production to rise by 65,000 mt, bringing global output to 3.564 million mt.

This improved production forecast comes as demand growth is expected to slow following the Philippine government’s decision to postpone its planned biodiesel mandate hike, originally set for autumn 2025. The postponement was made amid concerns over elevated coconut oil prices, which remain crucial for local cooking needs.

Market outlook suggests further easing

Both coconut oil and palm kernel oil (PKO) prices are expected to ease in Q4 2025-Q1 2026, supported by improved production particularly in coconuts.

The combination of increased supply and slower demand growth creates a more favorable environment for buyers in the coming months.

For FMCG procurement managers, the current price decline represents an opportunity to secure more favorable contracts, especially as the production outlook continues to improve and demand pressures remain subdued across key markets.


This article is part of a full market analysis on the coconut oil market. For the full analysis, go to: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/2299