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The Ultimate Guide to Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Price Forecasts in 2025

Last updated: April 10, 2025

Today I’m going to show you EXACTLY how to use Crude Palm Oil price forecasts to gain a competitive edge in 2025.

In fact, Vesper’s AI-powered forecasting technology has delivered forecast accuracy rates as high as 91-92% for Indonesian CPO prices over the past two years.

And in this comprehensive guide, I’ll show you exactly how you can leverage these insights.

Let’s dive right in.

Why CPO Price Forecasts Matter

Here’s the deal:

CPO prices have seen extreme volatility, spiking as much as 105% in Indonesia during 2022 alone.

This makes accurate forecasting more critical than ever.

But don’t just take my word for it…

“The Vesper price forecasts help us determine what direction the market is heading towards and guide us to engage or hold back on purchases.”

— Jorge Rodriguez, Head of Vegetable Oils and Fat, Grupo Diana

In today’s volatile market, organizations need more than historical data and gut feelings.

They need AI-powered forecasts that can identify patterns across millions of data points simultaneously—something no human analyst could process alone.

Key CPO Products Across Regions

Let’s look at the key Crude Palm Oil products that Vesper provides forecast data for:

Product Regions Why It Matters
Crude Palm Oil Indonesia World’s largest producer (59% of global supply)
Crude Palm Oil Malaysia Second-largest producer (28% of global supply)
Crude Palm Oil India Major importing consumer market
Crude Palm Oil Colombia Leading South American producer
Crude Palm Oil Brazil Growing producer and significant importer
Crude Palm Oil West-EU Major importing region, benchmark for European pricing
Crude Palm Oil RSPO SG West-EU Sustainability-certified premium product

What makes Vesper’s coverage unique is that it tracks both origin and destination markets simultaneously, giving you a complete picture of the global supply chain.

Understanding Regional Price Relationships

Now:

Most procurement professionals make a crucial mistake: they focus on just one regional CPO price.

This is a massive error that can cost millions in missed opportunities.

Here’s why:

The relationship between Indonesian and Malaysian CPO prices isn’t static. It fluctuates based on:

  1. Local supply disruptions (weather, labor issues)
  2. Export tax differentials (which change monthly)
  3. Freight rate variations
  4. Currency fluctuations

Vesper’s AI forecasting system captures all these variables automatically by analyzing over 100,000 data points simultaneously.

The result?

Price relationship insights that are impossible to spot manually.

What’s particularly interesting is how differently CPO prices behave across regions. Our historical analysis shows that during major market movements:

  • Indonesia and Malaysia (as producers) show different price volatility patterns
  • Destination markets like India and the EU display unique premium structures
  • Regional spreads can widen or compress based on freight dynamics and local demand

These regional differences create strategic sourcing opportunities that only become visible with accurate forecasting.

For example, in our analysis, we’ve identified that certain regions are poised for significantly higher percentage increases than others over the coming years.

Want to know which regions are showing the strongest upward trends for 2025-2026? That’s where Vesper’s forecasts come in.

CPO and Refined Products: The Connection

Here’s something most analysis gets wrong:

CPO isn’t the end product. It’s the starting point.

The real value comes from understanding how CPO prices influence downstream refined products:

CPO Derivative Price Premium Over CPO Regional Forecast Accuracy
RBD Palm Oil +$50-80/MT 91-92% (Indonesia)
Palm Olein +$75-110/MT 87-90% (India, Colombia, Brazil)
Palm Stearin +$90-140/MT 75-89% (Malaysia)

Vesper’s platform doesn’t just forecast CPO—it extends to the full value chain, including:

This gives you unprecedented visibility into margin dynamics throughout the supply chain.

Using CPO as a Baseline for Palm Derivatives

But it gets even better.

CPO isn’t just related to refined palm oil products. It’s also the baseline for the entire palm complex, including:

Palm Kernel Products

The palm fruit yields two distinct oils:

While they come from the same fruit, their price relationship isn’t fixed. Vesper tracks this spread with forecasts for:

Oleochemicals

For industries using palm-based oleochemicals, Vesper provides forecasts for:

This complete coverage makes Vesper an invaluable tool for companies throughout the palm value chain.

Industries Relying on CPO Forecasts

Who needs accurate CPO forecasts?

More businesses than you might think:

  • Food Manufacturing: Snacks, confectionery, baked goods
  • Personal Care: Soaps, shampoos, cosmetics
  • Biofuels: Biodiesel producers
  • Animal Feed: Palm kernel meal users
  • Oleochemicals: Surfactants, emulsifiers, fatty acids

Each of these sectors has unique forecasting needs, which is why Vesper’s multi-perspective approach is so valuable.

How Vesper’s Dual Perspective Delivers Superior CPO Forecasts

This is the game-changer:

While other platforms offer either data-driven models OR human analysis, Vesper provides BOTH:

AI-Powered Forecasts

Vesper’s AI forecasting system processes over 1,000,000 data points across four key categories:

  1. Commodity Prices: Historical patterns and cross-commodity correlations
  2. Economic Indicators: Inflation, GDP, currency movements
  3. Technical Indicators: RSI, Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands
  4. Supply and Demand: Production volumes, inventory levels, consumption patterns

The result? An unbiased, data-driven forecast with documented accuracy of 91-92% for Indonesian CPO and 75-90% across other major markets like India, Colombia, Brazil, and Malaysia.

Expert Analyst Insights

Complementing the AI, Vesper’s palm oil analysts provide:

  • Market sentiment analysis
  • Weather impact assessments
  • Regulatory change evaluations
  • Qualitative supply chain insights

“I like that Vesper’s calculations and forecasts are computer-based models which is very good for getting an unbiased opinion.”

— Jan Bert Banga, Strategic Buyer, Nestlé

When these perspectives align, it strengthens your confidence. When they differ, it alerts you to potential market volatility.

The Bottom Line: Millions at Stake

The CPO market isn’t getting any simpler.

With increasing volatility, sustainability pressures, and complex supply chains, having accurate price forecasts isn’t just nice to have—it’s essential.

Let me show you just how essential with a real example:

In early 2022, CPO prices skyrocketed across all regions:

  • Indonesia saw prices more than double in just a few months
  • Other major markets like India, Colombia, and Brazil experienced similar dramatic spikes

For buyers who used accurate forecasts to anticipate this spike, the savings were enormous:

  • Purchasing 10,000 MT in Q1 2022 at pre-spike prices could have saved millions of dollars
  • Those without forecasting tools were forced to buy at market peaks

And looking ahead? Our analysis shows another significant trend forming for 2025-2026.

Would you rather be caught unprepared or positioned strategically when the next major market shift happens?

Vesper’s comprehensive CPO forecasting gives you:

  • Complete regional coverage (Indonesia, Malaysia, EU, India, Colombia, Brazil)
  • Full value chain visibility (crude to refined products)
  • Dual perspective (AI + Analyst)
  • Transparent accuracy tracking
  • Industry-leading forecast accuracy, especially for Indonesian CPO (91-92%)

Instead of revealing exactly what our forecasts predict for 2025-2026, I’ll leave you with this question:

What would a significant price movement in your key sourcing regions mean for your procurement budget?

With Vesper’s forecasts, you won’t have to guess.

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