May 22, 2025 – Weekly Market Intelligence

The temporary 90-day reduction in Chinese import tariffs on US whey products is sending ripples through global dairy protein markets, according to the latest Vesper Price Index (VPI) data. This strategic trade policy shift is rapidly recalibrating market dynamics between US and European suppliers as Chinese buyers return to American negotiations.

Market highlights

  • Temporary tariff relief creates a 90-day window for US whey exports to China, easing pressure on US manufacturers
  • European whey market cooling as Chinese buyers regain multiple sourcing options
  • WPC80 and WPI prices remain elevated but stabilizing in both US and European markets
  • Significant price gaps persist between US and EU markets across all whey categories

Regional price dynamics

Sweet Whey Powder (SWP)

European SWP food-grade prices held steady at €1,050/mt ($1,188/mt), while US SWP declined to €954/mt ($1,080/mt) as Chinese demand returns to American suppliers. European demand remains stable but subdued, with production volumes constrained by processors’ preference for higher-protein whey products.

WPC80 & WPI

WPC80 prices remain unchanged at €12,000/mt ($13,586/mt) in Europe and €9,249/mt ($10,471/mt) in the US, with the temporary tariff reduction allowing Chinese buyers to pivot back to US sources. This market shift has already lowered European price ceilings from €13,000/mt to €12,800/mt.

WPI markets have stabilized following the intense bidding competition seen in previous weeks. Current prices hold at €20,500/mt ($23,210/mt) in Europe and €17,816/mt ($20,172/mt) in the US, supported by cautious production strategies that maintain tight supply fundamentals.

Whey Permeate & Lactose

US whey permeate prices dropped to €389/mt ($440/mt) for food grade, reflecting the volatility directly linked to US-China trade negotiations. Meanwhile, European permeate prices remain steady at €820/mt ($928/mt).

European lactose prices maintain stability at €1,350/mt ($1,528/mt), nearly double the US price of €739/mt ($837/mt), with the differential approximately matching import tariff levels—creating a competitive equilibrium between regions.

Market outlook

The temporary tariff relief window creates short-term market clarity, but longer-term forecasts remain highly dependent on US-China trade negotiations. European suppliers should prepare for potential pressure on prices as US competition intensifies during this 90-day period.

Key factors to monitor include:

  • Outcome of US-China trade negotiations after the 90-day tariff reduction period
  • Production balance between SWP and higher-protein whey derivatives
  • Chinese import volumes during the tariff relief window
  • Price relationship between WPC80 and WPI, which suggests potential adjustments ahead

For comprehensive market analysis, including detailed price trends and regional insights across all whey protein categories and lactose markets, read our full weekly market report here: https://app.vespertool.com/market-analysis/1953